Global Warming! Really?

Global warming today is being projected as an apocalyptic event and its outcome even being compared to the fallout of a global war. However, there is considerable evidence that there is little truth in the hypothesis that the planet is undergoing any significant climate change. In fact, in the 1970s we were more worried about global cooling and the coming of an ice age more than anything.

The argument for global warming rests on the following premises:
1.    Factual evidence that both temperatures and sea levels have been rising consistently
2.    Carbon dioxide is the primary contributor towards global warming and that increased levels contribute to increased temperatures
3.    Climate models on which the premise of these arguments rest upon

There is no concrete evidence today that global temperatures have been rising consistently. In fact the opposite is actually true: temperatures have been declining. An important factor here is the time period over which these measurements are made. Obviously, if we are talking about a global effect of such huge consequence, then our time period should be much more just 50 years. Over the last 200 years, there are periods over which average temperatures have gone up and there are other periods when the opposite has happened.  The way we measure temperatures aren’t also the best ways to go about it. Most measuring stations are near airports and almost all of them are in towns and therefore the likelihood of temperature readings being on the higher side is higher. And secondly measuring increase in sea levels anywhere close to accurately is almost impossible. Even if thinning of the ice poles is happening today, there is no credible evidence whatsoever that we are from any danger of it (except for low lying areas like the Maldives which is of course an area of concern).

Also carbon dioxide is not the primary contributor towards global warming. Gases like methane are. In fact, by a common measure methane is 25 times more potent as a contributor than the carbon dioxide released by cars. It is estimated that the planets ruminants are responsible for about 50% more greenhouse gas than the entire transportation sector today. There is also no concrete evidence that increased levels of carbon dioxide contributes to higher temperatures. In fact, increased carbon dioxide may actually be a good thing. In an experiment conducted, two identical saplings were grown in identical environments with only one difference. While one sapling was given the normal amount of carbon dioxide, the other sapling was given twice that amount. After a span of time it was observed the sapling that received higher levels of carbon dioxide had grown 183% of its counterpart!

Climate models on which the premise of the global warming argument rests upon are hopelessly inadequate. In fact the science is very complex and something as important as cloud formation has not been given enough importance. Therefore models today don’t hold a lot of ground.

A volcanic eruption at Mount Pinatubo released so much sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere that it actual led to global drops in temperature and even so, our planet can solve the problem via a few volcanic eruptions. If we don’t want to leave it to Mother Nature, then we can simulate some of this ourselves and this is called geo-engineering. Of course, today there is much controversy in this area (no country can unilaterally inject something into the atmosphere that may affect the climate in some other country) and there is a lot of consensus building that will need to be done.

We should be worried more about deforestation than global warming as this is a serious problem with very real and evident consequences. This causes extinction, real changes to climatic conditions (erosion, flooding & landslides), desertification and displacement of indigenous people. It has been estimated that about half of the Earth's mature tropical forests that until 1947 covered the planet are now gone. Up to 90% of West Africa's coastal rainforests have been lost since 1900 and in South Asia about 88% of the rainforests have disappeared. Much of what remains of the world's rainforests is in the Amazon basin today and the Amazon Rainforest covers approximately 4 million square kilometers. However I will perhaps leave this topic for another blog.

I am not going to point fingers at anyone or any organization that most others hold responsible for fears on global warming. However, it is a good question to ask is
who profits from this the most? Who benefits most from carbon trading? Isn’t telling China and India to reduce carbon dioxide emissions putting a brake on their economies and overall growing global influence? Won’t taxation on carbon emission drive up our energy consumption bills? I am not going to answer any of these questions, but I would like to leave the reader with one last thought: there is a conspiracy theory going around today that the 4th world war is already being fought and it has to do with energy.  Currently, given that the dominant source of energy is oil and that is primarily found in the Middle East, much of the war is being waged there.  Of course, this is only but highly speculative and but possibly a worthwhile thought experiment.